One of the surest way to profit from football is to oppose big name teams when they are out of form. The markets generally do not catch up with their form and are pricing these teams almost solely on their name value.
Liverpool towards the end of the season were having a torrid time on and off the pitch. They had very little to play for, having missed out agen bola terpercaya on Champions League qualification. The ongoing sage of Raheem Sterling’s potential transfer to Manchester City was clearly unsettling for the club.
Opposing Out of Form “Big Name” Teams
Stephen Gerrard was coming towards the end of his glorious Anfield career and his best days were perhaps behind him as his mind turned to his next venture in the MLS. Liverpool’s key striker, Daniel Sturridge, was out injured. But perhaps most serious of all, the team and fans seemed to have lost faith in manager Brendan Rodgers and the team performances were therefore lacklustre.
All of this combined in a perfect storm to make Liverpool uniquely opposable towards the end of the 2014/15 season and into the 2015/16 season. After losing to Manchester United on 22nd March, which all but ended their hopes of Champions League qualification, Liverpool then proceeded to win only 2 of their remaining 8 games, losing to Arsenal, Hull, Crystal Palace and Stoke.
A great example of this came in the 2014/15 season of the Premiership.
The last of those matches illustrates the great value you can get by opposing big name teams. In addition to all the aforementioned problems about Liverpool, the stats showed that Stoke had an impressive home record that season, with a W9-D3-L6 record whilst Liverpool’s away record was W8-D3-L7 – so broadly similar judi slot online.
Yet Stoke were priced at 5/2 for this game, whilst Liverpool were priced at 6/5.
There can be no logical reason for this pricing, other than that Liverpool have enormous “name value” for being one of the biggest clubs in the World based on their achievements over the last 50 years. But that counts for little in the here and now.
Well famously the result was a resounding 6-1 win for Stoke.
The mediocre form continued for Liverpool into the 2015/16 season, winning just 3 of their first 10 games in the Premier League. However, with the arrival of Jurgen Klopp as manager, there are signs that Liverpool’s fortunes may be improving and it may best to watch how things develop under the German rather than opposing them for the time being.
However, there are great opportunities all the time to profit from market overestimation of big name teams. AC Milan are a classic example of this. It has been a number of seasons since the Rossoneri mounted a serious challenge for the Serie A title.
Their last couple of seasons finished with positions in the league table of seventh and tenth and they currently sit 8th in Serie A at the time of writing. Yet they are often priced as if they are still one of the top teams in Serie A. This is purely based on their name value and their past achievements, not their form in recent seasons.
Manchester United under David Moyes were another example. They were priced up as if Alex Ferguson was still the manager, but the team played entirely differently and was a shadow of its former self.
This “name value” can also work in another way – by making very good teams with little name recognition go “under the radar” for quite some time before the market catches up.
Good examples of this were Jurgen Klopp’s Borussia Dortmund, who came from relative obscurity of mid-table finishes to win back-to-back Bundesliga titles in 2010/11 and 2011/12. Despite breaking many records in those seasons and finishing well ahead of Bayern Munich, they were often priced at considerable higher prices than their rivals.
Another example has been Athletico Madrid under Diego Simeone, who captured the Primera Liga title in 2013/14, as well reaching the Champions League Final and then finishing third in the table the next season. But for a long time, the market simply would not believe how well they were doing based on resources a fraction of the size of their rivals Real Madrid and Barcelona.
The point is that the market does eventually catch up to teams like Dortmund and Athletico Madrid and prices them as they should be. You won’t find much value on these teams now, but there is often a good season and a half of value to be had whilst punters come to terms with the quality of these “lesser lights.”
There is great value to be had by opposing “big name” teams who are out of form and backing high quality lesser-known teams. This should not be based on just short runs of form like four or five games, when any team can hit a good or bad run of form, but stronger underlying trends over a season or even a number of seasons. The great thing is that value can be had over long periods by following this betting strategy.