This is simply not true and there is a great opportunity to profit from this popular misconception. The vast majority of the time, bookies will price up teams who have to win to secure promotion, avoid relegation etc, much shorter than they would normally be during the main season. This is in expectation of an avalanche of money for such teams as punters pile in, sure in their view that because these teams need to win, they will.
One of The Biggest Myths in Football and Who Need to Win
Writing in The Definitive Guide to Betting on Sport, fastbet99 comprehensively refutes this theory with data from 10 seasons of the English Championship and League One. Pullein points out that “these promotion-hunting teams did worse in May, when they played their last few games, than they did in any other month of the season.”
They should win more games in May
Rubbing salt in the wound of proponents of this theory, Pullein goes on “Over the years in the Racing Post, I have produced a number of similar graphs, each one depicting the results achieved by a different group of teams who were either chasing promotion or running away from relegation. And they all pointed to exactly the same conclusion – that teams who need to win in the final few weeks of the season are no more likely to do so than they are at any other time.”
The first is that teams who need to win will be trying harder than they were for the rest of season. But that presumes they weren’t trying in previous weeks. Despite popular notions that footballers are overpaid and underworked, to suggest that they are consistently not trying when they run out in front of thousands of fans and millions watching on TV, doing the thing most of them love and are agen sbobet terbaik competitive about, does not stand up to scrutiny.
Both of Which The Evidence Suggest Are Likely to Be False
Presumes pressure will produce better performances. But often in life pressure can do the opposite – those who regularly watch sports like golf and snooker will be used to seeing players missing shots under the extreme pressure of winning a tournament or maintaining their tour status that they would never miss during a practice session or less intense playing situation.
The same may well be the case in football. Sven Goran Eriksson is quoted as saying he has seen a number of players who will make 99% of penalties in training but only make around 60% in actual matches.
Pressure may actually hinder players from producing their best then, rather than inspiring them. Certainly the statistics would seem to back this up.
At the end of the season, there is a great opportunity to profit from the strategy of opposing teams who need to win when their odds are shorter than they would normally be during the main season.